Summer 2026, from June through August, was over-the-top hot in the Lower 48 states and Ouray as well. It was also the warmest summer “in 132 years of record-keeping.” (Ava Berger, “This summer was hot. August shattered global heat records,” Climate, NPR, Sept. 10.) “Globally, August ties with July as the hottest month on record, according to the European … Copernicus Climate Change Service.”
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “July was the hottest month on record for the contiguous U.S.” It averaged 76.9 degrees Fahrenheit and was 3.3 degrees above the 20th century average. (“Assessing the U.S. Temperature and Precipitation in July,” Aug. 10) NOAA says that four states — Idaho, Utah, Wyoming and Montana — “set all-time temperature records on July 12.” Wyoming also recorded its warmest July and warmest month on record.
In Ouray, summer 2026’s average temperature was a record 68.3 degrees, surpassing summer 2002‘s 68.1 degree record.
Summer 2026 was Ouray’s third record season in a row. Spring 2026’s record heat, 47.9 degrees, effortlessly exceeded the 1989 spring record, 46.6. This past winter season — December 2025-February 2026 — averaged 33.3 degrees, decisively breaking the record set in winter 1980-1981, 32.1.
The last nine months have been hotter than normal in Ouray, with an amazingly warm March boasting a record-setting mean temperature of 46.8 degrees, upending the old record of 41.1, set in 1972.
Winter 2025-2026’s first month — December — was also record warm, averaging 36 degrees and eclipsing the high mark of 35.4, set in 1980.
Berger writes that, “global temperatures in August also exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, according to Copernicus. That’s a key climate threshold agreed to by countries in 2015.” At the same time “record high sea surface temperatures were also seen across the Pacific Ocean as the climate pattern El Niño began to develop.”
In addition to the wet, warm September that southern Colorado is experiencing this year, NOAA’s latest prediction calls for a strengthening El Niño “with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.” (El Niño/Southern Oscillation [ENSO] Diagnostic Discussion, Climate Prediction Center, Sept. 10.)
From October-December 2026, “there is a 75% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 …” One of those strongest previous El Niño events — 1981-82 — coincided with two years of severe damage from Ouray floods.
Afterwards, the city widened and deepened the historic Cascade and Portland flumes which funnel the waters of Cascade and Portland Creeks through town to the Uncompahgre River. Now, 40-plus years later, those much improved flumes have prevented serious flooding at least twice — in summers 2005 and 2010.
Interestingly, in the six years from 1981-1986, Ouray registered amazing amounts of precipitation: 26.96, 29.93, 32.77, 33.66, 26.67, and 30.45 inches, respectively, at a time when normal yearly precipitation was 23.05 inches. The record yearly precipitation, 33.66 inches, set in 1984, still stands.
Snow amounts for those early years in the 1980s were high too: 1981-82, 163.4 inches; 1982-83, 183.6 inches; 1983-84, 227.4 inches; 1984-85, 161.2 inches. Normal yearly snow accumulation then was 140.1. The 1983-84 snow total (227.4 inches) held the record until this century when 263.4 inches accumulated in 2007-2008.
So what is Ouray’s late September/ early October weather forecast? NOAA’s 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecasts as of Tuesday morning predict 50-60% warmer than average temperatures through Oct. 5 and 40-50% more precipitation than normal. The three- to four-week forecast through Oct. 16, issued last Friday, predicts warmer and wetter weather as well.
Normal October highs are 58.3 degrees, lows 34 degrees. Normal precipitation is 2.20 inches; snowfall is 6.1 inches.
One of the fascinating things about El Niño is that it redistributes “heat already in the climate system,” according to climate scientists Andrew Dessler and Zeke Hausfather. (Is this El Niño a glimpse of a future, hotter Earth?” The Climate Brink, Aug. 17.) Dressler and Hausfather explain: “Global temperatures are predicted to soar due to the El Niño event that is currently ramping up. Most forecasts predict that 2027 will set records, with the global average temperature reaching levels we would not expect until the late 2030s.”
They argue that the climate of the late 2030s will be different, though: It “will contain more energy than today’s Earth. Its oceans will be warmer, its land will be warmer, and the underlying changes in temperature and precipitation will be driven by persistent greenhouse forcing rather than the temporary rearrangement of heat associated with ENSO.”
The 2027 El Niño will give us “some insight into what a hotter planet looks like,” though Dressler and Hausfather argue that “we should avoid thinking this is the climate of the future.”
“El Niño is a time machine.”
— Zeke Hausfather
Karen Risch gardens, records weather for NOAA and CoCoRahs, writes and hikes in Ouray. Her Wunderground weather station ID is KCOOURAY3, transmitting weather from latitude N381’34”, longitude W10740’21”, Elevation 7,736’. A purpleair.com air quality monitor RISCH operates at the same location.
